Demographic Shifts and The Republican Party

Demographic Shifts and Republican Strategy: The role of Education in transforming a dying party

% of US Population			Projected % of Population in 2050
Ethnicity	%		Ethnicity	%
White	72		White	46
African American	14		African American	15
Hispanic	16		Hispanic	30

 

Since the 2012 election the Republican Party has been trying to figure out what went wrong, what could have been different, and who to blame.  Little to no progress has been made, because nothing much has changed in the day to day dogmatic rhetoric of the extreme right.  The party is having an identity crisis, because they don’t know what movement to stand behind.  They don’t know if they should continue with the Tea Party movement, or actually look at redefining some of their key platforms to appeal to a broader base.

Before the election I thought they knew what their goal was, winning the moderate vote.  In the past 50 years, the country has fundamentally shifted from political polarization to a more moderate base.  The percent of voters who classify themselves as Republicans is 27%, which give or take a couple percentage points is what it was in 1960.  In 1960, Democrats made up 60-70% of the registered voters but over the years they have declined to a modest 36%.  Where did those other voters go?  24% of voters now categorize themselves as other, meaning moderate. 

So you have a country that is more understanding, more accepting of new ideas, and more open to crossing party lines for a candidate in which they trust their vision (2008 election).  Bipartisanship, civil debates, and executable solutions for the nation’s biggest problems are expected from this moderate base.  Instead of capitalizing on this relatively easy opportunity, the Republicans dug their heels into the sand and did EXACTLY what the moderate base didn’t want them to do.  They played political games and failed to deliver on promises.  They critiqued and ridiculed policy they didn’t agree with, instead of offering a viable solution.  They refused to be pragmatic, and wouldn’t compromise on conservative theory.   I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, pessimism doesn’t increase voter turnout optimism does.

It’s crucial that party leadership realizes what is happening, and adjusts their focus on the ever growing moderate voter base.  Their 27-30% of categorical Republican voters aren’t going anywhere, they haven’t since the 60’s.  Republican leadership is what lost the 2012 election, not Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.  After the calamity of the Republican primary, winning the White House was a long shot.  The failure of the 2012 election is due to Republicans not getting their ducks in a row and delivering a clear and concise message that appealed to a majority of the population.

2012 is over now, so what do you do?  How can the Republican Party redefine themselves?  And who is going to lead them through that change?

Nation Demographics (see charts above)

It’s pretty clear that in 2050, demographically speaking we won’t be the same country we are today.  With that, comes shifts in the voter base and hopefully shifts in party platforms.  The goal is to not form policy off of demographic statistics, but use demographic statistics to ensure your policy is in line.

Demographic of Latino's registered to vote
Age Group	%
18-29	29
30-49	34
50-64	21
65 and older	12

 

70% of the voters above vote Democrat/lean Democrat

72% of that 70% have a household income of less than $30,000

The Hispanic vote is a hot topic.  Everyone is in a race to capture this growing demographic.  As you can see in the first chart, in 2050 30% of the population is estimated to be of Hispanic descent.  Republicans are desperate for a shift in Hispanic voting from Democrat to Republican, but unfortunately without the necessary attention and party reform this won’t occur.

Democratic policy, true or false, is believed to be tailored to the less fortunate.  Republican policy, true or false, is believed to be tailored to big business and the wealthy.  So, in my opinion, it’s pretty clear that Republicans need to be associated with more than just protecting big business and the wealthy. 

I think there is one key area that if done properly can properly position the Republican Party for future success.  And I’m not talking about dominating politically, I’m talking about doing what is right for the country.

Education Reform

Let’s understand the numbers above.  Of the 70% of Democratic Hispanic voters 72% of them have a household income of less than $30,000.  Less than 30k a year for a family is barely a livable wage, federal assistance is almost certain.  This economic disparity creates issues for economic and social policy.  You think budget deficits and federal debt are bad now, just wait if things continue in this direction.  The amount of people on federal assistance would triple.  This will bankrupt the nation.

 The goal of any developed nation, is to develop their people to be participants in the economy.  Goal being for each person to find success, and rise up from lower to middle class.  A misconception of the Republican Party is that we all have a level playing field.  This isn’t the case.  Minorities in low income areas simply do not have the same opportunities that the well off have in rich neighborhoods.  It’s not because of the person though, it’s because of the system.  The schools are different, environment is different, so you are going to produce different types of students.  Some of these districts are not producing students who can enter the workforce and be productive.  There is a gap in what is actually happening in the development of our youth and what needs to happen.  In order to bridge the gap and level the playing field you can’t just throw money at social agendas.  It’s simple, you achieve it through education reform.

Whether Latino’s vote Republican or Democrat it is imperative that, as a whole, the median household income increases.  In 2050, if 30% of the population is Latino and the income numbers remain the same then we are facing a terrible economic crisis.  If 72% of 30% of the country is making less than 30k a year you will have a larger reliance on federal support, less economic participants, higher taxes, larger deficits and stagnant economic development.  It’s quite simple, if these numbers continue the country will fail.  If Republicans work together and implement effective Education Reform for low income areas, they will begin redefining the grand ole party stigma. 

School Districts in low income areas struggle with unacceptable literacy rates, low dropout rates, and even a lower number of students seeking secondary education.  This simply has to improve.  The government needs to make an investment in developing the public school systems.  District budgets need to be grown so they can afford to invet in new technology, new teaching practices, and have the ability to hire the best teachers..  Districts need to be measured on the key areas of education math, science, and reading.  Districts, administrators, and teachers need to be held accountable for their test results.  Tenure will not guarantee employment if the numbers are not being met.  If you don’t put pressure on the districts to improve their processes then you can’t expect the students to improve their performance.

This is a movement that moderates will get behind.  This is a direction that will inspire people to do great things.  And for Republicans, this will create a movement among minorities to abandon their previous stigmas and view the new Republican Party with an open mind.

I want to touch on the 2013 CPAC that occurred this weekend.  This CPAC was basically a tryout for who will be front runners in 2016.  If you followed it at all you heard the normal uber conservative dialogue about lowering taxes, repealing Obamacare, and reluctance to support any social policy.  There was one highlight though, Jeb Bush’s speech on his vision for the Republican Party.  He hit all notes.  He understands the importance of welcoming new people to the party of all race, color, and income level.  He understands that we need to develop our people, and that we simply can’t ignore our failures in certain regions of the country.  He is committed to fixing our education system and reaching across the aisle to come up with solutions for our biggest problems.  He is not a Tea Party idealist, he isn’t a staunch uncompromising conservative, he is a moderate Conservative.  His speech didn’t get much coverage and the conservatives attending were not moved by his words, which confirms how myopic conservatives are right now.

My advice for Republican leadership is to use someone like Jeb Bush to assist in the reformation of their party.  I don’t believe the country is ready for another Bush in office, but the party’s key to success is utilizing and implementing the vision of this man.