2016 Strategy

I’m concerned that the Republican’s success in the midterm elections is distracting the planning for 2016.  Midterms are a different animal than Presidential elections.  Voter turnout is higher for Presidential elections, and generally that higher turnout is for the democrats and not the Republicans.  That paired with the fact that 24 Senate Republicans are up for reelection in 2016 in comparison to 10 Democrats is extremely worrisome.  Eight of those 24 Senate Republicans are running in states that went to Obama in 2012.  In those eight states there are a total of 127 Electoral votes (FL, NC, OH, NH, PA, IA, WI, and IL).  Republican strategy from top to bottom needs to focus on winning these swing states.  Doing so solidifies the current Senate majority and would essentially deliver the White House to the Republicans.

In the past I have wrote about the shifts in voting trends for each party.  Since the 1960’s there has been a very interesting change to how voters categorize themselves.  Republicans from that era to present make up 27% of the voter base consistently.  Democrats have gone from a peak of 70% of the voter base in the 60’s to 36% today.  So what happened to all of those registered Democrats?  They have shifted to the category of other which a small percentage makes up an independent party like the Green Party, but for the most part they are moderates who reside in the middle of the political spectrum.  These voters have an open mind and are more concerned on solutions to problems than strictly adhering to one party’s platform over another.  This is the key to 2016.  The 27% of Republicans will blindly vote Republican, the 36% of Democrats will blindly vote Democrat, but winning the vote of the moderates requires winning an argument that their party is the key to prosperity moving forward.  The Republicans have failed to convince moderate voters of this in the past two Presidential elections. 

It’s pretty evident what the goal is for 2016, win the moderate vote.  Party leadership needs to come together and get behind a candidate that will influence those voters to vote party line.  A clear and concise message is required to win the argument that our party is the way forward.  The question is does the party have the will power and frankly do they have the leverage over candidates to have them push a coordinated and concerted message in 2016?  As of right now, I believe that they do not.  The Tea Party movement and the midterm elections have lulled the leadership into a false sense of security.  They believe that simply repeating the same behavior of the past will lead to a different outcome.  The fact is that we are losing the argument to the American people.  Two things need to happen to deliver success in 2016.  Congress needs to do its job and pass legislation and the economic platform needs revised.

 

1.      The Republican controlled Congress needs to pass bills that the President will sign.

The 113^th Congress is toxic for a general election.  Political posturing leading to inaction on our most important problems does nothing but alienates voters.  The House is just as guilty as the Senate, meaning the Republican controlled House is just as guilty as the Democrat controlled Senate.  Come January though, the Republicans control both chambers so if another two years of inaction ensues then the blame is entirely on the Republicans.  This is not an option.  There is absolutely no chance we can win in 2016 if we can’t stand behind legislative accomplishments to support the argument that we are the party of the future.  Passing bills that will just be vetoed by the President is the same as not passing anything at all.  Let’s remember that the Democrat front runner, Hillary Clinton, has distanced herself from the President since positioning herself in the public arena as a candidate.  If major legislative accomplishments are made she won’t be able to politically benefit from them.  The 24 Senators up for reelection, including the eight in at risk states and the challengers to the ten Senate Democrats running in 2016 will be the benefactors.  The 114^th Congress must be productive.

2.      The economic platform needs to be more populist.

This election is going to be about the economy.  The stock market is at record highs but the middle and lower class are not reaping the benefits of this supposed economic prosperity.  Anyone who does research on the market knows that one of the main reasons the market is up is because of the increase in massive stock repurchases.  Companies who buy back their own shares do so to benefit their shareholders through price appreciation.  Not to be a cynic but it also increases executive compensation because their pay is tied to the performance of the stock price.  I’m a shareholder of Wal-Mart (a modest 4 shares, lol) and they have put forth a $15 billion stock repurchase program (Other culprits, Apple $30 billion, Wells Fargo $17 billion, 3M $12 billion, AT&T $10.5 billion, McDonalds’ $20 billion).  My shares have surged 50% since I first purchased a few years ago, yet at the same time their employees are still making minimum wage.  This is but one example on how the façade is created that we are in a period of prosperity.  Hiring isn’t increasing at the rate that it should and wages are still stagnant.  The two areas that the middle and lower class rely on are not improving.  The President pats himself on the back for the unemployment rate decreasing to 5.8% but the more important unemployment figure is the U6 unemployment rate.  This number not only represents the unemployed but it also represents part time employees and the underemployed, it’s a far more accurate representation of the status of the labor market.  It currently stands at 11.4% which is very high.  Let us not forget the new college graduate unemployment rate which currently stands at a whopping 16.8%.  The last figure I’ll throw out is the economic participation rate.  This has dropped nearly 4% in 10 years, just over 92 million Americans over the age of 16 that simply aren’t working.  With that being said, can you really blame the average American for not believing that this economic expansion is legitimate? 

Both parties can be blamed for these failures, and a deeper discussion on this topic could last months, but what’s important is using these stats to our favor.  Increasing the economic participation rate is priority number one.  We need to understand two things.  One, why are people not entering the workforce and two what can legislatively be done to fix it.  Those 92 million represent many different age groups, ethnicities, and income classes but it definitely isn’t the top 1% of Americans.  The conspiracy against the 1% is overblown, but people gravitate towards hating the rich.  I suppose it’s just human nature.  And what party supposedly represents the rich?  The Republicans.  This is why I’m recommending that our economic policies get tweaked to not focus on cutting taxes and benefiting the wealthy, but focus on helping people that would improve the three stats I listed above.  By successfully doing this, you will be boosting the economy far more than by cutting taxes and helping corporations.  Putting people back to work, getting them off government assistance, and creating discretionary income for them will increase the demand for goods and services across the board.  That increase in demand will lead to a boost in GDP per capita, a healthier corporate America that’s stock price rises more organically than stock repurchase programs, and a more optimistic and prosperous American society.  These are all good things and provide serious political weight with individuals on all sides of the spectrum.  I don’t see how the party moves forward and garners more support without focusing on the above deficiencies.

Let’s say the two recommendations above actually happen, then the question is who will be the Republican candidate in 2016 that can be consistent with this reform.  There are many qualified individuals that are considering running Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and probably Bobby Jindal to name a few.  Cruz, Walker, and Paul are too polarizing and would only get the 27% of Republicans that normally vote and wouldn’t capture few moderates if any.  Marco Rubio just hasn’t done enough and failed on immigration reform, a bill he sponsored.  Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are non contenders and I’d be shocked if they even have a donor base to make a legitimate run.  Bobby Jindal lacks the national recognition and Chris Christie’s just isn’t presidential.  I believe the one candidate that can deliver victory in 2016 is Jeb Bush.  His fundraising capacity alone gives him the most well financed campaign out of any other Republican.  His legislative record in Florida is impressive and his stance on immigration and education is forward thinking enough to break normal Republican dogma.  His vision for the Party is to make it more inclusive to all Americans and he believes ignoring our biggest problems for political benefit is no way to govern.  He is focused on solving problems for all Americans, not just the 1%.  That argument I mentioned above, the one that is needed to convince the moderates that we are the party for them, Jeb is the guy who wins that argument.  Not to mention he would also deliver Florida and its 29 electoral votes. 

I hope Republican leadership understands and shares my sentiment.  Jeb gives you the best chance to win a majority of the swing states and preserve the current majority in the Senate.  Failure to acknowledge this and adapt to the changing environment will lead to another failed election and a loss of the current majority.