The Iran Deal is Complete, so What Now?

The framework of the Iran deal is complete and agreed on by all parties.  After reading the details of the deal, I believe the objective of stripping Iran’s ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon is a success.  It’s an acceptable start to a series of tough conversations that the West is going to have to have with the Iranian regime.  To name a few, stopping their ICBM program, their financing of global terrorism, their illegal holding of Americans in Iranian prisons, and their human rights violations against their own people.  A nuclear armed Iran and an impending arms race in the Middle East is a direct threat to the national security of the United States.  Thus this is the priority, the other issues will be addressed in time but they are not on the same scale. It was wise to sequester those items from the nuclear negotiations, but just because we have a deal doesn’t mean that we can turn our focus away from Iran. 

Iran still isn’t to be trusted.  They made a smart political decision that has bought them time.  We are yet to see their sincerity in actually dismantling their nuclear program.  The United States needs to focus on three things to ensure compliance with the deal and must be prepared to hold Iran accountable if they do not comply with the agreed upon terms.

 Strict adherence to the language of the deal along w/ periodic inspections of all items related to their nuclear infrastructure

The deal focuses on three major areas.  The three facilities used to enrich uranium, the amount of centrifuges in those sites, and the amount of enriched uranium already manufactured. 

Out of the three nuclear facilities only one will remain, Natanz (the other two will be converted to non nuclear facilities).  Periodic inspections will occur to ensure that the enrichment does not surpass the 3.67% needed for nuclear power plants.  (90% is needed for a nuclear weapon)

The centrifuges which are used to enrich uranium will be decreased to 1/3 of its current inventory.  Lastly they will decrease their stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 97%.

Face value says that these are all good things.  We still are giving them the ability to modernize their power grid, but we have measures in place to ensure they do not enrich uranium to the level of producing a nuclear weapon.  It’s important to note that all of this is useless unless we have inspectors ensuring Iranian compliance.  The US also needs to increase clandestine operations in the region to keep tabs on what the Iranians are not making public.

The international community cannot simply take Iran’s word that they will comply.  We need to have access and verify for ourselves that they adhering to the terms of this deal.

Uphold the US oil export ban of 1975

After the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, Congress passed a law stating that any domestically produced oil cannot be exported.  In past years this hasn’t been a huge issue, but now that domestic reserves are increasing we are seeing an excess supply in the market.  This paired with a regression in global demand has caused a severe drop in the price for crude oil.  For the first time in a long time, the oil companies are struggling.  In response to this they have stepped up their lobbying campaign to repeal this law.  President Obama has refused to repeal thus far.  This is absolutely the right move.  It would be negligent to allow a short term deflation of crude oil to dictate policy.  Our energy policy has national security implications, this must trump any demands by the private sector.

We need to start planning on all fronts for a failure of the Iranians to comply with this deal.  An energy independent America provides us more maneuvering room in the event we have another war in the Middle East.  Stability in the domestic oil markets is an absolute necessity when initiating a military campaign overseas.  An energy independent United States nearly guarantees that.

The United States needs to make budgetary preparations for war

The way I see it there are two potential outcomes of this deal.  One, Iran abandons the deal and continues to enrich uranium and they produce a weapon.  All while reaping the benefits of the removed economic sanctions.  They will use that influx of economic activity to further finance terrorism across the Middle East especially through Hamas towards Israel.  The other outcome is that Iran does adhere to the terms of the deal, but will still use the increased economic activity to finance terrorism.  Both outcomes call for American action, but it’s just a question of when and of what scale.  The latter outcome is the most likely but it’s imperative that we prepare for the more severe outcome to ensure that we are prepared to hold them accountable.   

A preemptive coalition should be formed including the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt with the goal of communicating to Iran the consequences if they elect not to comply with the deal.  Our national budget should include appropriations to each of these countries, if needed, for further growth and advancement of their militaries.  To do this though, we must adequately fund our defense budget and reverse the damages caused by mandatory sequestration cuts. 

For the first time since WWII our military is not prepared for war.  Lifers at the Pentagon, military think tanks in Washington, and former military leaders are all in consensus that sequestration cuts have put us in a bad position.  In 2012 Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense, provided a baseline absolute minimum military budget for 2016 of $612 billion.  The Obama administration has proposed a budget of $534 billion.  The National Defense Panel says that this decrease in funding will destroy core elements within all branches of the military.  In the Reagan years, military spending accounted for 27% of the budget but under this new budget national defense only accounts for 18%.  An increase in military spending is needed and should surpass the baseline Robert Gates proposed, but this spending should be net neutral.  Meaning we should not increase taxes, but instead find savings elsewhere.  The black hole of entitlement spending would be a good place to start looking.

It would be wise to also examine revenues and pass a revision to the current tax code.  Congress needs to provide a simplified tax code that eliminates loop holes and deductions as a means of increasing revenues without raising rates.  Tax reform should tackle the issue of US corporations holding profits earned overseas to avoid paying taxes in the US.  It’s estimated that currently over $2 trillion in profits are being held offshore.  If taxed at 30% that would provide $600 billion in new revenues not to mention the long term increase in revenues annually from closing this loop hole.  I would hope that an influx in revenues of this magnitude would inspire a bipartisan effort for tax reform. 

The old adage of hope for the best and prepare for the worst has rarely been more relevant.  Our short term success of this deal with Iran is exactly that, short term.  Preparation to act militarily though is a task that isn’t short term.  It will require years of planning and a reallocation of the federal budget.  Our national debt must be addressed so that if we do have another war in the Middle East it doesn’t break the bank.  Aside from the budget, we need to learn from our past mistakes of leaving ourselves susceptible to giant price fluctuations of crude oil when we are involved militarily in the Middle East.  An energy independent America is essential in our preparations for a possible war with Iran.  Lastly, we need to be incredibly vigilante to ensure Iranian compliance with the deal.

It shouldn’t be confused that I want Iran to dissent causing a war with the West.  What I want is for Iran to understand that if they do dissent, that we are prepared to hold them accountable.  If our military is underfunded and in disarray, if our national debt is ballooning and we are flirting with default, and our energy expenditures are up 50% then it doesn’t matter what rhetoric we throw towards Iran.  They will know that we do not have the power to act, and if they know there are no consequences then they will reinstate their efforts to produce a nuclear weapon.

A strong America is our best bet to peace and stability in the region.